Comments on: The Optimistic Post That Took Four Days To Write http://www.rehmeyer.com/2006/11/06/the-optimistic-post-that-took-four-days-to-write/ Tue, 30 Sep 2008 14:24:08 -0500 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.8.4 hourly 1 By: Mastiff http://www.rehmeyer.com/2006/11/06/the-optimistic-post-that-took-four-days-to-write/comment-page-1/#comment-11 Mastiff Wed, 20 Dec 2006 00:21:35 +0000 http://www.rehmeyer.com/2006/11/06/the-optimistic-post-that-took-four-days-to-write/#comment-11 I found the initial "dollar auction" scenario to be extremely interesting. However, to be applicable to the Iraq War, the terms need to be changed to reflect the fact that losing the auction (i.e. pulling out) could very well turn out more expensive than just muddling along. For example, the second-highest bidder could be hit with a additional randomly-determined charge between $1 and $1000, determined with a logarithmic bell-curve or somesuch. The point being that <i>every country in the region</i> with the exception of Syria and Iran wants our troops to remain for the near future, because a pullout would lead to regional war. Saudi Arabia has promised to arm the Sunni population against the Shia. Kurdistan has hinted that it will wash its hands of the rest of Iraq and declare independence, which would provoke an invasion by Turkey. Jordan is bracing for a destabilizing flow of refugees. Etc. I have been extremely disappointed with the way the war was handled. I especially think that the decision to set up the Coalition Provisional Authority could very well have cost us the decisive victory that we needed. But that is all past now. The question is, how can we salvage things going forward. I do not believe that pulling out will lower our summed costs in the long run. I found the initial “dollar auction” scenario to be extremely interesting. However, to be applicable to the Iraq War, the terms need to be changed to reflect the fact that losing the auction (i.e. pulling out) could very well turn out more expensive than just muddling along.

For example, the second-highest bidder could be hit with a additional randomly-determined charge between $1 and $1000, determined with a logarithmic bell-curve or somesuch.

The point being that every country in the region with the exception of Syria and Iran wants our troops to remain for the near future, because a pullout would lead to regional war. Saudi Arabia has promised to arm the Sunni population against the Shia. Kurdistan has hinted that it will wash its hands of the rest of Iraq and declare independence, which would provoke an invasion by Turkey. Jordan is bracing for a destabilizing flow of refugees. Etc.

I have been extremely disappointed with the way the war was handled. I especially think that the decision to set up the Coalition Provisional Authority could very well have cost us the decisive victory that we needed. But that is all past now. The question is, how can we salvage things going forward.

I do not believe that pulling out will lower our summed costs in the long run.

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